Brazil Steel Imports Set for Record in 2025

Brazil is set to import a record 6.3 million metric tonnes of rolled steel by the end of 2025, according to the domestic steel industry association Instituto Aço Brasil. This marks a 32.2% increase from 2024’s imports and a sharp rise from earlier estimates. The surge highlights ongoing challenges for Brazil’s steel sector, especially competition from cheaper imports, mainly from China.

Rising Brazil Steel Imports and Industry Impact

The sharp rise in Brazil steel imports follows updated forecasts by Instituto Aço Brasil in July. The initial growth estimate was 11.5% over 2024’s volume of 4.77 million tonnes. However, new data predicts over 1 million tonnes more imports than previously expected. This increase adds pressure on Brazil’s domestic steel producers, as imported steel now accounts for about 30% of the country’s steel sales.

Regional demand plays a key role in this surge. Buyers in northern and northeastern Brazil heavily rely on imports despite a 25% tariff. These regions lack rolling mills. Meanwhile, steel in the southeast is costlier due to high freight and taxation on cross-country transport. State tax incentives at ports like Manaus and São Francisco do Sul also boost imports, increasing pressure on local mills.

Brazil Steel Imports: Political and Economic Challenges

At the Aço Brasil Congress in August, stakeholders debated the risks imports, especially from China, pose to the domestic steel industry. Despite government safeguards such as anti-dumping duties and quotas, imports continue to grow steadily. Foreign trading companies offer cheaper credit than local banks, making imports financially appealing.

Brazilian buyers also fear domestic supply shortages based on past price spikes. This concern drives some to prefer imported steel despite longer delivery times. Beyond rolled steel, Brazil expects to import over 6 million tonnes of steel-containing finished products in 2025, further affecting the local market.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Brazil’s record steel import forecast for 2025 reveals deeper structural issues in the country’s steel industry. Tariffs and quotas aim to protect local producers. However, regional differences and financial benefits still favor imports. Domestic mills must focus on improving supply reliability and pricing to stay competitive. Policymakers need to balance protection efforts with global trade realities. As steel consumption rises, monitoring imports, production, and regulations will be key for stakeholders.