China steel exports reach record levels in 2025
China steel exports continue to surge despite global trade pressures. Exports likely exceed 115 million tons in 2025, setting another historic record.
Chinese mills shipped 111.1 million tons in 2024, marking strong annual growth.
During January to October 2025, exporters delivered 97.7 million tons overseas.
Meanwhile, November shipments pushed total exports near 107 million tons.
As a result, annual exports may reach about 117 million tons.
Weak domestic construction demand drives mills to rely on overseas markets.
Therefore, exporters maintain capacity utilization through aggressive export strategies.
China steel exports shift toward semi-finished products
China steel exports now rely increasingly on slabs and billets. Semi-finished exports jumped 2.6 times year-on-year to 11.9 million tons.
However, finished steel exports rose at a much slower pace.
Trade barriers explain this structural shift. Many countries expanded anti-dumping duties on Chinese finished steel.
Meanwhile, semi-finished products face fewer or weaker restrictions.
Exporters also reduce carbon and trade risks through semi-finished shipments. This strategy supports compliance with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
As a result, China steel exports adapt to tighter global regulations.
Licensing rules reshape China steel exports from 2026
China plans mandatory export licensing for certain steel products from 2026. Authorities aim to control volumes, product types, and destination markets.
However, licensing may favor large state-owned steel groups.
The policy may accelerate exporter consolidation across the sector.
In addition, mills may prioritize semi-finished products and strategic markets.
Key destinations include ASEAN, the Persian Gulf, Africa, and the European Union.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
China steel exports face a strategic inflection point after years of expansion. Regulation, CBAM costs, and trade defenses will reshape global steel flows.
Therefore, semi-finished steel may dominate China’s export strategy beyond 2026.
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