China’s Steel Exports to Exceed 100 Million Tons in 2025 – Baosteel

Baosteel Targets Growth Amid China’s Steel Export Surge

China’s leading steelmaker  Co (Baosteel) expects the country’s steel exports to exceed 100 million tons in 2025. According to Reuters, the company anticipates robust outbound shipments, despite potential headwinds from rising prices, export taxes, and global trade barriers.

In the first seven months of 2025, Baosteel exported 4.83 million tons, close to its 2024 total of 6.07 million tons. The company projects annual export capacity of 10 million tons, with aggressive targets of 15 million tons in 2026 and 20 million tons by 2027. These figures position Baosteel as a key player in driving China’s steel trade momentum.

However, Chairman Jixin Zou noted that exports may dip in Q4 2025 due to export tariffs and new tax regulations. Meanwhile, General Manager Baojun Liu emphasized ongoing international growth, supported by Baosteel’s expanding footprint and rising monthly export volumes.

Focus Keyphrase: China’s Steel Exports to Exceed 100 Million Tons

Baosteel’s forecast that China’s steel exports will exceed 100 million tons in 2025 highlights a critical shift in global trade flows. As domestic demand softens and overcapacity looms, Chinese steelmakers are pushing into overseas markets with cost-competitive volumes.

The company’s $4 billion investment in Saudi Arabia marks a strategic move to decentralize production and improve access to regional demand hubs. With a planned capacity of 2.5 million tons, the facility supports Baosteel’s long-term internationalization strategy and reflects China’s pivot toward value-added steel exports.

Simultaneously, Baosteel is evaluating anti-involution policies aimed at limiting redundant production in China. These internal reforms, combined with outward investment, could ease pressure on domestic mills and stabilize global prices. The company continues talks with partners across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for further expansion.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Baosteel’s outlook underscores China’s intent to dominate global steel trade while managing internal structural issues. The projection that China’s steel exports will exceed 100 million tons in 2025 suggests sustained oversupply pressure on international markets. However, Baosteel’s shift toward regional production hubs signals a more nuanced strategy. By building capacity closer to demand centers, China could mitigate trade tensions and logistical costs. Global competitors must prepare for a market shaped by China’s scale, efficiency, and strategic investments.