Supply Disruptions in Australia and Stronger Demand in China Push Prices Higher
Global coking coal prices have begun to rise in April due to supply disruptions in Australia and firming demand from China. According to Kallanish, the price for premium Australian coking coal rose by $14/t in the first half of the month, reaching $181/t FOB as of April 11.
Australian Supply Tightens Amid Mine Issues
Production setbacks in Australia have tightened supply. Notably, an accident at the Appin mine in New South Wales and an emergency shutdown at Moranbah North in Queensland disrupted output. Despite the reduced availability, steel mills in Japan and India are reluctant to buy due to increased freight rates, which push up the total landed cost.
Australian traders believe the market is now near equilibrium, with limited upside potential unless demand increases further.
Chinese Production and Demand Balance Market
Meanwhile, the price of premium Chinese coking coal also climbed by $5/t, reaching $181/t EXW by mid-April. This coincides with higher coke plant offers and steady pre-order shipments, despite low inventories at Chinese mines.
Data from China’s General Statistical Office shows that coke production rose 2.4% y/y to 123.3 million tons from January to March. However, a sharp 4.1% decline in March output indicates decreasing inventories, especially with steel production rising by 4.6% y/y to 92.84 million tons.
Nevertheless, falling rebar prices in China—down $12/t to $416/t FOT—suggest limited room for coking coal prices to rise further. Market participants cite uncertainty in Chinese steel exports, influenced by ongoing trade tensions with the United States, as a primary cause for rebar price weakness.
Outlook
For now, the global coking coal market is stable but fragile. With SuperMetalPrice tracking these shifts closely, market participants should prepare for further volatility driven by geopolitical risk, freight costs, and steel demand dynamics.
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