European Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Drop Amid Import Competition
The price of hot-rolled coils in Southern Europe fell by €20 per ton to €545 per ton CIF in early April 2025. This decrease in hot-rolled coil prices is due to increased competition from imports, particularly from Vietnam. These imports pressured local producers to lower their prices, influencing the overall steel price trends in Southern Europe.
Impact of Import Competition and Tariffs
The price drop is linked to large stocks of imported products at European ports. Imports from Vietnam have intensified market competition. Although Vietnam’s duty-free import quota was exceeded in Q1 2025, Vietnamese coils remain attractive to buyers. However, the European Commission may increase tariffs for Vietnamese producers in Q2, potentially ranging from 8-10%.
Flat Demand in Key Sectors
Demand for hot-rolled coils in key sectors, especially automotive, remains weak. New car registrations in the EU dropped by 2.6% in January and 3.4% in February. However, March saw improvement. S&P Global raised its 2025 EU car production forecast by 63,000 units. This change was due to the EU’s revised CAFE rules, which extend environmental standards for internal combustion engine vehicles until 2028.
Stable Prices in the U.S. Market
In the U.S., the price of hot-rolled coils remained steady at $975 per ton EXW in early April. American steel mills are refraining from price hikes due to the potential resumption of imports. This stability in steel price trends has helped the market find a price point it can support.
In March, U.S. new car sales reached 1.56 million units, surpassing the expected 1.43 million units. This increase is attributed to the 25% import duty on cars, which boosted domestic purchases. However, Cox Automotive forecasts a slowdown in the second half of the year due to rising spare part costs from import duties, which could influence steel price trends moving forward.
Price Movements in India and China
In India, hot-rolled coil prices rose by $22 per ton in early April, reaching $592 per ton FOB. This increase follows the start of the new fiscal year on April 1. In contrast, prices in China fell to $470 per ton FOB, down from $480 per ton at the end of March. Despite increased public investment and steel exports, China’s overproduction continues to pressure prices downward.
China’s Steel Export Surge
China’s steel exports increased by 6.3% year-on-year in January-March 2025, reaching 27.43 million tons. This is the highest level since 2016. Despite this growth, China still faces challenges with excess steel production, which is contributing to further price reductions.
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