European HRC Market Stagnates Amid Import Pressure and CBAM Concerns

Demand Slows as Imports Weigh on European HRC Market

The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market saw prices decline across all major regions in July 2025. According to market data, prices fell by 2–6%, with Western Europe and Italy experiencing the steepest drops. Western European HRC prices hit €545/t ex-works, down 5.2%, while Italian prices dipped to €525/t, a 3.7% decline. In Southern Europe, import offers dropped to €465/t CIF, reflecting persistent oversupply and low buyer activity.

Large volumes of Asian imports—primarily from Indonesia, India, and Turkey—flooded the European market. Offers ranged between €450–490/t CIF, a historically low range that failed to spark significant restocking. Producers struggled with low order volumes, resulting in short delivery times. Buyers remained hesitant amid the unstable pricing environment, choosing to delay major purchases.

Some regional variations emerged. Spain showed relative resilience, supported by demand from the automotive sector. However, Germany, France, and Belgium continued to see cautious purchasing from service centers, which limited orders to small volumes and select imports.

CBAM and Market Signals Shape the Future of European HRC Prices

One of the main pressures on the European HRC market is the pending introduction of the Cross-Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set for implementation on January 1, 2026. As buyers prepare for new duties and reduced import quotas, uncertainty has increased. Market participants are hesitant to commit to long-term contracts, weakening demand further and extending the current price downtrend.

Despite the bearish environment, some signs of market stabilization emerged in late July. Service centers resumed import purchases in anticipation of stronger demand in the fall. Notably, traders reported deals with Asian suppliers at €440/t CIF, helping processors improve margins before expected price increases in September.

In a bold move, ArcelorMittal raised base prices by €30/t, aiming for €590/t for October delivery. However, market reception was lukewarm. Many buyers questioned the sustainability of such increases given weak demand, excessive inventory, and fragile production planning across Europe.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The July slowdown in the European HRC market underscores the sector’s vulnerability to external factors like import pressure and regulatory shifts. With CBAM on the horizon and EU safeguard measures tightening, supply dynamics will change significantly. Yet, recovery hinges on a genuine demand rebound, especially in construction and automotive sectors. If restocking gains traction in September, combined with limited Asian supply due to CBAM, price stability may return. Until then, risk-averse strategies will define market behavior across the steel supply chain.