Glencore copper output drops amid Rio Tinto takeover talks

Glencore copper output drops 11% as operational and grade challenges persist

Glencore copper output fell 11% in 2025, reaching the low end of its guidance.
Weaker ore grades and operational constraints weighed on production across key mines.
The company produced 851,600 tonnes, rebounding 12% in the final quarter to 268,000 tonnes.

Zinc and nickel output broadly met expectations, while metallurgical coal fell 6% short.
Thermal coal production exceeded forecasts by 7%, offsetting some overall shortfall.
Glencore maintained most 2026 production targets but withdrew cobalt guidance due to DRC export uncertainties.

Collahuasi in Chile contributed to lower copper output, constrained by water and grade issues.
Glencore co-owns the mine with Anglo American, highlighting operational interdependencies.
For 2026, copper production guidance sits between 810,000 and 870,000 tonnes, slightly lower than prior forecasts.

Glencore copper output drops as Rio Tinto takeover looms

Investor attention focuses on a potential Rio Tinto all-share takeover expected by February 5.
The deal could create the world’s largest miner, valued above $200 billion.
Copper assets are central to the deal, given the metal’s rising role in low-carbon, AI, and defense sectors.

RBC Capital Markets highlights Glencore’s 44% stake in Collahuasi as the “real prize.”
Analysts note that other copper projects globally face size, development, or legal challenges.
Copper is increasingly shaping earnings, with forecasts showing it may represent 35% of diversified miners’ EBITDA in 2026.

Rising copper prices and scarcity concerns accelerate merger talks.
Glencore aims to reach 1.6 million tonnes of copper annually by 2035 through new and restarted mines.
However, long-term strategy could shift depending on merger outcomes.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Glencore copper output drops highlight the metal’s strategic importance in global mining.
As Rio Tinto eyes a merger, copper’s dominance in earnings and supply security intensifies.
Investors and policymakers must watch how operational performance and consolidation shape market dynamics.