Glencore Warns of Cobalt Surplus Amid DRC Export Ban

DRC Export Ban Disrupts Global Cobalt Supply

Glencore has raised concerns over a potential cobalt surplus as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues its export ban. The DRC, responsible for over 70% of global cobalt production, extended the ban by three months in June. Originally introduced in February, the measure aims to restrict oversupply and build a quota system for regulated exports.

The extension is tightening availability and prompting inventory drawdowns across the market. Glencore, which mined 18,900 tonnes of cobalt in H1 2025, reported that it is now stockpiling all production from its Congo operations. The company also declared force majeure on some deliveries earlier this year due to the export bottleneck.

Despite the ban, Glencore raised its 2025 production forecast to 42,000–45,000 tonnes, up from 38,200 tonnes in 2024. Last year, the miner produced 35,100 tonnes of cobalt in the DRC, mainly as a byproduct of copper mining. However, the company remains cautious, warning that a large portion of its output may go unsold in 2025.

Glencore Maintains Conservative Outlook for Cobalt Sales

Glencore’s Chief Financial Officer, Steven Kalamin, confirmed the company expects no material financial impact even if cobalt sales stall through year-end. He emphasized that any resumed exports would be considered upside rather than baseline planning. This conservative stance helps manage market expectations while uncertainties remain around the DRC’s policy direction.

Meanwhile, cobalt prices have suffered steep declines, plunging to a nine-year low in January 2025. The crash followed oversupply from the DRC and sluggish growth in EV battery demand, which now leads global cobalt consumption. The company believes tighter supply in the second half of 2025 could offer price support as inventories deplete.

Glencore also signaled a potential shift in its corporate focus. CEO Gary Nagle said the firm may divest its 16.4% stake in Bunge Global, the new agribusiness giant formed from Bunge’s merger with Viterra. Nagle noted that agriculture “is not necessarily consistent” with Glencore’s long-term strategy.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Glencore’s warning about unsold cobalt highlights the fragile balance in the global cobalt supply chain. The DRC’s extended export ban has shocked short-term flows but may stabilize long-term pricing if demand recovers. EV sector sluggishness adds pressure, but future price resilience hinges on policy shifts, inventory cycles, and downstream demand clarity. Traders and manufacturers should monitor Glencore’s stockpile management and any easing in Congolese export controls.