Goldman Sachs Warns of Copper Downside Risk Amid Middle East Tensions

Copper Downside Risk Heightened by Middle East Conflict

Goldman Sachs warns that copper faces downside risk if the Middle East war persists. Analysts highlight potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Prolonged blockage could keep energy prices elevated and slow global economic growth.

Copper prices surged past $14,500 per ton in early 2026 but have since dropped 2.5%. The conflict on Iran alone caused a 7% decline, bringing prices near $12,000. Rising energy costs and weaker industrial demand are pressuring the market further.

Bloomberg Intelligence also notes that continued disruption could limit copper demand to 0.5%–1% growth. Prices could fall below $10,000 per ton if tensions persist. Meanwhile, uncertainty in global supply chains adds pressure to investor sentiment.

Goldman Sachs Trims Copper Price Target for 2026

Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 base-case copper price target to $12,650 per ton, down from $12,850. The adjustment assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by mid-April.

Analysts caution that copper currently trades above its estimated fair value of $11,100 per ton. Therefore, the market remains vulnerable to further declines if economic conditions worsen. A “severely adverse” scenario could push prices lower than the revised target.

Investors are closely monitoring energy prices and geopolitical developments. Copper’s industrial demand is particularly sensitive to supply shocks and slowing global growth trends.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Copper markets face heightened volatility as geopolitical risks intersect with economic uncertainty. Goldman Sachs’ revision reflects both supply chain concerns and overvaluation pressures. Meanwhile, industrial users and investors should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential downside. As global energy and trade dynamics evolve, copper pricing could remain under significant stress through 2026.