Refined Copper Surplus Expected to Widen in 2024
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has raised its 2024 copper production and usage forecast, projecting a refined copper surplus of 469,000 tons, up sharply from April’s 162,000-ton estimate. The revised outlook reflects stronger-than-expected copper production across global operations.
Mine Output to Grow Despite Disruptions
Copper mine production is forecast to hit 22.75 million tons in 2024, a 1.7% growth rate, up from the prior 0.5% estimate. This increase is driven by new and expanded mining projects, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mongolia, despite supply losses from Panama’s Cobre mine closure.
In 2025, global mine output is expected to grow by 3.5%, slightly lower than previous forecasts but supported by ongoing expansions.
Refined Copper Production and Demand Trends Strengthen Outlook
Global refined copper production is expected to reach 27.62 million tons in 2024, growing 4.2%, up from the earlier 2.8% projection. The recovery comes after 2023 disruptions and includes new refining capacity in China and the DRC. A slowdown to 1.6% growth is expected in 2025 due to concentrate constraints.
Meanwhile, refined copper usage is forecast to hit 27.15 million tons in 2024, a 2.2% increase. Chinese demand is set to grow by 2%, with demand from the rest of the world projected at 2.4%.
2025 Surplus Forecast Increased
Looking ahead to 2025, ICSG predicts a refined copper surplus of 194,000 tons, double the previous estimate of 94,000 tons. This shift reflects a robust supply outlook and steady but moderate demand growth, largely fueled by infrastructure and clean energy investments.
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