New Estimates Highlight Strong Demand and Supply Dynamics
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has significantly revised its 2024 forecast for the global refined copper surplus, projecting a surplus of 469,000 tons—up from April’s estimate of 162,000 tons. This dramatic increase, driven by higher-than-expected copper production, reflects a robust supply outlook.
In terms of mine production, the ICSG has raised its forecast to 22.75 million tons, marking a 1.7% growth rate, a substantial increase from the prior 0.5% projection. The uptick is largely due to new and expanded mining operations, despite the closure of Panama’s Cobre mine, which removed 330,000 tons from supply.
Looking ahead to 2025, copper mine production is anticipated to grow by 3.5%, slightly lower than previous estimates, supported by ongoing developments at key mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mongolia.
On the refined copper front, production is expected to reach 27.62 million tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.2%, surpassing earlier forecasts of 2.8%. This recovery follows operational disruptions in 2023 and is bolstered by new facilities in the DRC and China. However, a slowdown in growth to 1.6% is anticipated for 2025 due to concentrate limitations.
The ICSG also updated its global refined copper usage forecast to 27.15 million tons, indicating a 2.2% increase this year. Chinese demand is expected to rise by 2% in 2024, while global demand excluding China is projected to grow by 2.4%. Infrastructure investments and the transition to cleaner energy sources are expected to sustain long-term copper demand.
For 2025, the group predicts a refined copper surplus of 194,000 tons, an increase from the previously estimated 94,000 tons.
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