Iron ore prices fall 6% in early 2026 as supply pressures intensify across global markets. Qingdao 62% Fe iron ore quotes declined 6.3% to $100.26 per tonne CFR between December 26, 2025, and February 20, 2026. Current levels mark the lowest point since August 2025.
Iron Ore Prices Fall 6% as Seasonal Support Fades
Iron ore prices fall 6% after short-lived seasonal support from Chinese restocking. In late January, Chinese steelmakers increased purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year. This restocking activity temporarily stabilized the market.
However, weakening fundamentals quickly outweighed seasonal optimism. Steel inventories at mills expanded, while construction activity slowed due to winter conditions. As a result, demand momentum faded before the holiday period ended.
Futures markets initially reflected optimism, supported by rising coking coal prices. Meanwhile, traders monitored improving sentiment across ferrous markets. Nevertheless, excess supply conditions gradually reasserted control.
Supply Growth Pressures Qingdao Iron Ore Prices
Supply growth continues to pressure Qingdao iron ore benchmarks. Port inventories in China approached multi-year highs by late January. Steel producers reduced purchases due to narrow margins and cautious financing policies.
In early February, iron ore prices fall 6% further as demand weakened sharply. Post-holiday buying slowed significantly, while seaborne supply remained elevated. Even weather-related disruptions in Australia failed to tighten the market.
New high-grade shipments from the Simandou project added additional supply expectations. The project strengthens long-term global output forecasts. Consequently, traders anticipate sustained availability of premium ore.
Liquidity also declined during the holiday period, accelerating futures weakness. Chinese steel demand remains the decisive variable for price direction.
Outlook for Iron Ore Prices in 2026
Market participants expect limited upside in the near term. High inventories and subdued construction activity restrict bullish momentum. Moreover, pig iron production recovery has lagged earlier expectations.
Analysts project prices to fluctuate between $95 and $105 per tonne CFR in coming months. However, weaker Chinese steel demand could trigger further downside risks.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
Iron ore prices fall 6% due to structural oversupply rather than temporary demand shocks. China’s cautious steel sector limits recovery potential despite seasonal restocking cycles. Meanwhile, supply expansion from Simandou adds medium-term pressure on benchmarks. SuperMetalPrice expects continued volatility, with sentiment closely tied to Chinese construction and steel margins.
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