Iron Ore Prices Stagnate in Early December 2025

Iron Ore Market Faces Early December Pressure

Iron ore prices fell in early December 2025 due to weaker demand and limited trading activity. Spot January contracts on the Singapore Exchange dropped 2.3% to $103.3/t. January futures on the Dalian Exchange declined 0.9% to $111.12/t. Early-month optimism, driven by a weak US dollar and discount-rate cut expectations, faded by week’s end as steel mills reduced purchases ahead of holidays.

Chinese port data shows rising iron ore stocks and lower daily shipments, signaling slower demand. Eastern China’s rebar production regained profitability, partially stabilizing prices. Central China experienced concentrated blast furnace maintenance and lower steel output. These structural factors create caution despite short-term price fluctuations.

Seasonal trends and port stock accumulation continue to pressure the market. Steel production declines and restrained mill purchasing maintain moderate weakness. Expectations of Chinese economic stimulus, including the Central Economic Conference in mid-December, provide limited short-term optimism.

Iron Ore Price Forecasts and Global Supply Factors

Fitch Ratings raised 2025-2026 iron ore price forecasts due to strong global demand. The average price for 62% iron content (CFR China) is projected at $100/t in 2025 and $90/t in 2026, up from prior forecasts of $95/t and $85/t.

The Simandou project in Guinea may affect global supply in 2026, though first shipments to China are expected only in early 2026. Market participants are watching Guinea closely along with domestic Chinese production. Structural steel changes and seasonal demand patterns will continue to shape pricing through year-end.

Investors and steel mills remain cautious, balancing short-term opportunities against long-term supply trends. Limited trading ahead of holidays and evolving global supply dynamics underscore market vulnerability to sudden shifts in ore availability or policy changes.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Iron ore markets face moderate weakness from Chinese stockpiles, slower steel production, and seasonal slowdowns. Fitch’s higher price forecasts indicate strong global demand, yet short-term volatility persists. Strategic buyers should monitor Simandou shipments and Chinese economic policy. These factors will influence early 2026 prices and overall market stability.