Mexican Rebar Output Recovers Strongly in May 2025

Rebar Production and Consumption Surge Despite Weak Construction Sector

Mexico’s rebar production staged a sharp recovery in May 2025, defying sluggish construction trends. Monthly output reached 1.65 million tonnes, up 27% from April’s 1.30 million tonnes. This rebound occurred even as year-on-year volumes slipped 1.5% from May 2024. Rebar consumption followed a similar pattern, jumping 29% from April to 1.60 million tonnes, though still 3.3% below the same period last year.

This strong month-on-month growth came despite Mexico’s construction activity declining 2.7% in April. Seasonal rains and tight credit restrained project momentum. Yet the broader economy continued to grow, expanding 1.4% year-on-year, according to INEGI’s Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE). The rebar market’s resilience signals underlying strength in demand linked to industrial or infrastructure projects beyond residential construction.

Mexico’s rebar price debuted at 13,600–14,000 pesos per tonne ($735 average), positioning it at a mid-range level in the Americas—above Brazil but below the US. Export volumes rose 11.3% month-on-month to 59,000 tonnes in May, with the United States taking nearly three-quarters of total shipments.

Diverging Rebar Price Trends Across the Americas

Mexico’s entry into regional rebar pricing comes as neighboring markets diverge. In Brazil, rebar prices dropped for a sixth consecutive month due to credit constraints and weak construction. Domestic prices in Brazil were assessed at $597–639 per tonne in June, marking a 4.6% monthly decline. Distributors noted that tight financing and high interest rates severely restricted construction activity.

In contrast, US rebar prices rose, driven by tight supply and mill-led hikes. Domestic prices in the US were assessed at $840 per short ton on July 2, up 7.69% from June 4. US buyers face a challenging import environment, with low availability from offshore suppliers keeping supply tight despite tepid demand.

Mexico’s mid-tier price reflects a cautious but steady market. While rebar exports are less exposed to global trade fluctuations than flat steel, some rerouting is underway. Mexican exporters have started redirecting volumes from the US to markets like Canada and Colombia. This shift aligns with broader nearshoring strategies as supply chains realign across North America.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Mexico’s rebar recovery signals a stabilizing trend in the face of volatile construction dynamics and shifting trade flows. While year-on-year data shows mild softness, the monthly rebound points to resilience driven by infrastructure or industrial demand. With domestic rebar prices now being assessed in Mexico, traders and buyers have a crucial benchmark. Export momentum toward the US and beyond further underlines Mexico’s growing role in North America’s steel supply chain. If construction bottlenecks ease post-rainy season, Mexico could emerge as a regional leader in long steel recovery.