Rafael Grossi Visits Iran Amid Shrinking Space for Diplomacy

IAEA Chief Seeks to Restore Oversight of Iran’s Nuclear Programme

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is visiting Tehran in an effort to restore his agency’s access to Iran’s nuclear programme. His visit comes as Iran’s uranium enrichment levels near 60% purity, dangerously close to weapons-grade material. Grossi’s trip follows the 2018 collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief.

The Aftermath of the JCPOA Collapse and Iran’s Nuclear Expansion

Since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA under Donald Trump, Iran has abandoned all limits on its nuclear programme, accelerating uranium enrichment and resisting international oversight. Grossi has warned that the window for diplomacy is closing, as regional and global tensions escalate. The upcoming IAEA Board of Governors meeting may see more countries push for concrete measures against Iran’s nuclear advancements.

Ongoing Disputes Over IAEA Access and Transparency

One of the key issues is Iran’s refusal to grant the IAEA full access to nuclear sites. Surveillance cameras have been tampered with, and key inspectors have been barred from sensitive locations. These disruptions have raised concerns over Iran’s nuclear transparency. Grossi aims to address these concerns and re-establish effective monitoring during his visit.

Despite these challenges, Grossi remains committed to diplomatic efforts. However, Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have stated that Tehran will not negotiate under pressure, signaling difficulties ahead for diplomatic progress.

International Pressure and Potential Retaliation

The situation is further complicated by Israel’s threats of military action, with Israeli officials warning that they will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders have responded by warning that any interference in its nuclear affairs could result in immediate countermeasures. Grossi acknowledged that some nations are considering strong action, but reiterated that dialogue remains the best option to avoid further escalation.

What Lies Ahead: Diplomacy vs. Escalation

Grossi’s mission in Tehran remains uncertain, with both sides entrenched in their positions. While the IAEA seeks greater transparency and oversight, Iran remains firm on pursuing its nuclear ambitions. As diplomatic efforts continue, rising tensions and geopolitical uncertainty pose significant challenges. Grossi’s goal is to de-escalate the situation, but achieving meaningful progress remains an uphill battle.