Rising Mill Output Creates Ferrous Market Anticipation

U.S. Steel Mills Increase Output Amid Tariff Support

Steel production in the United States is climbing as mills accelerate operations heading into late 2025. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), U.S. mills produced nearly 1.76 million tons of raw steel during the week ending November 8, 2025, operating at 76.7% capacity. This marks a 9.1% year-on-year increase, signaling renewed momentum in the domestic steel sector.

Year-to-date output has now reached 77.2 million tons, up 3.1% from 2024, highlighting a solid rebound after a sluggish first quarter. Industry sources credit much of this improvement to federal steel tariffs—as high as 50% on imports—implemented under the Donald J. Trump administration. Executives like George Adams, CEO of SA Recycling, praised the tariffs at the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) convention in Bangkok, calling them a key factor in stabilizing U.S. steelmaking.

However, despite rising production, recycled steel prices remain in a steady-to-downward range. Data from MSA Inc.’s RMDAS and Davis Index show minimal movement in mill bids, suggesting output growth has not yet translated into stronger raw material demand.

Ferrous Market Anticipation Builds Despite Price Stagnation

The ferrous market now faces a delicate balance between steady output and cautious pricing. While strong mill utilization supports optimism, weak export demand continues to cap price growth. Davis Index reports flat bids from U.S. West Coast exporters due to adequate inventories in East Asian melt shops. Meanwhile, slight upticks—between $3 and $5 per ton—appeared at Houston and Boston ports for shredded scrap, No.1 HMS, and plate and structural grades.

Another potential market mover is weather. Early November brought severe winter conditions across Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland—major scrap-processing regions. While one cold snap may not shift pricing alone, consecutive storms could disrupt collection and logistics, tightening supply and forcing mills to raise bids.

In addition, global scrap exports from both the U.S. and European Union fell in the first half of 2025, according to BIR statistics advisor Rolf Willeke. Reduced international trade volumes add another layer of unpredictability to the months ahead.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The surge in U.S. steel mill output underscores a turning point for the domestic ferrous market. Stronger production and tariff protection have fortified the supply side, but pricing remains subdued as export weakness and inventory surpluses persist. As winter intensifies and mill activity remains robust, short-term volatility could emerge. Traders and recyclers should watch for regional weather disruptions and evolving trade flows that may reignite upward price momentum heading into early 2026.