As we approach the March domestic mill buying season, there are strong expectations that recycled steel prices will continue to rise. According to financial press outlets and industry reports, U.S. processors and traders are optimistic about price gains, driven by tight supply conditions and reduced generation of recycled steel in the previous months.
Weather Impact on Steel Supply and Prices
Severe winter weather in recent months caused a drop in recycled steel collection, pushing up prices as mills scrambled to replenish their inventories. This spring, however, weather is less likely to be the primary factor affecting prices. Instead, the tight supply of recycled steel appears to be driven by broader economic factors and supply chain challenges, suggesting that demand may have strengthened compared to the previous months.
The outlook for the U.S. economy in early 2025 remains uncertain. This uncertainty is partly due to shifting tariff policies, which have left many industry players frustrated. A supplier to the metal recycling sector expressed their concerns in March, noting that the unpredictability of tariff regulations makes it difficult to plan or invest with confidence. Despite this, expectations for higher recycled steel prices remain strong, particularly for the spring buying season.
International Factors and Domestic Steel Production
On the international front, U.S. exports of recycled steel have faced some challenges. Mills in Turkey, for example, have reduced their scrap imports from the U.S. by 60% in January 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. This decline has kept import prices in Turkey stable, without any significant upward movement.
However, domestic prices have remained buoyant. As of early March, shredded scrap prices are averaging $431 per ton to domestic mills in the U.S., maintaining the price gains from earlier in the year. In addition, figures from MSA Inc.’s Raw Material Data Aggregation Service (RMDAS) show that No. 2 shredded scrap has surpassed the $400 per ton mark for the first time in 10 months, signaling a continued upward trend in prices.
Challenges for the U.S. Steel Industry
While the domestic steel industry is focused on securing a larger share of the scrap supply, there is concern about the overall health of the industry. Year-to-date steel production has declined by 1.3% through February 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). This slowdown in production could impact the supply and demand balance for recycled steel.
As the spring buying season approaches, industry participants will closely monitor the evolving market dynamics. The outlook for recycled steel prices remains optimistic, but uncertainties about tariff policies and international trade could influence the direction of the market in the coming months.
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