Trump’s Election Win Clouds COP29, Threatens US Climate Leadership

US Climate Leadership at Risk
Donald Trump’s election victory just before COP29 in Baku has raised serious concerns about the future of US climate action. Known for his climate change skepticism, Trump is expected to reverse many of the policies implemented under President Biden, particularly regarding the Paris Agreement. As the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter and the highest historical emitter, the US plays a pivotal role in shaping global climate efforts. With Trump’s climate denialism, COP29 faces uncertainty regarding the US’s commitment to international climate goals.

Bitter Disappointment for Climate Advocates
US climate envoy John Podesta expressed deep disappointment over Trump’s victory, emphasizing that the progress made under Biden’s administration — including significant investment in clean energy and decarbonization — would likely be undone. Podesta pointed out that Trump’s rhetoric around climate change, calling it a “hoax,” directly contradicts scientific consensus, and his potential return to power poses a serious threat to climate action both domestically and globally.

The Threat of US Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
A key concern for COP29 is the potential for Trump to once again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, a move he made during his first term. Although Biden rejoined the pact, experts warn that under Trump, the US could exit the agreement once again, further isolating the country from global climate cooperation. Such a step could also embolden other major emitters to reduce their own climate commitments, undermining the progress made in previous international negotiations.

Impact on Global Climate Finance
Another crucial issue at COP29 is the renewal of climate finance commitments. The current $100 billion per year pledge, made in 2009, is due for replacement by a new collective quantified goal (NCQG). Experts stress that at least $2.4 trillion annually will be needed by 2030 to help developing countries achieve their climate targets. However, with Trump’s return to power likely to limit US contributions to climate finance, other wealthy nations may also scale back their pledges, undermining the global effort to fund climate action in the Global South.

Potential Shift in Global Leadership
As the US appears poised to retreat from climate leadership, there is speculation that China could step in to fill the gap. With a growing influence in climate negotiations, China may increase its efforts to shape global climate policy in the absence of US leadership. As COP29 continues, it remains to be seen how countries will respond to the shifting political dynamics, and whether they will maintain their commitments to the Paris Agreement and the broader climate finance goals.