Ukraine’s Rolled Steel Output Falls Slightly in 2025 Amid Global Market Pressures

Ukraine’s Rolled Steel Production Declines 1.4% in January–August 2025

Ukrainian steelmakers produced 4.25 million tons of rolled steel between January and August 2025, a 1.4% year-on-year decrease, according to Ukrmetprom. While steel output declined, pig iron production rose by 8% to 5.11 million tons. Meanwhile, overall steel smelting fell by 6.8%, totaling 4.91 million tons during the same period.

However, August brought some relief. Monthly rolled steel production rose by 14.7% compared to July and 7.4% year-on-year, reaching 633,200 tons. Pig iron output also improved, up 8% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year, totaling 747,500 tons. Steel smelting in August climbed 11.9% from the previous month but remained 6% below August 2024 levels.

In contrast, 2024 saw a strong rebound in Ukraine’s steel sector. Rolled steel production grew 15.8% to 6.22 million tons. Pig iron and steel output increased by 18.1% and 21.6%, respectively. Those gains came as the industry recovered from wartime lows and supply disruptions.

Global Headwinds Challenge Ukraine’s Steel Sector in 2025

Despite early gains in monthly output, Ukraine’s rolled steel production is trending downward as the global steel market weakens. Analysts that 2025 will be a challenging year. Steel exports from Ukraine could decline further due to slowing global demand, worsening price conditions, and expanding trade restrictions.

International competition continues to rise, particularly from Asia-based producers flooding the market with lower-priced semi-finished and flat-rolled products. Meanwhile, geopolitical instability and high logistics costs pose ongoing threats to Ukrainian exporters. These external pressures could suppress margins and limit plant utilization rates.

Ukrainian mills may need to shift strategy—focusing more on value-added steel, localized supply agreements, or aligning output to regional demand. Maintaining capacity during a volatile market will require strong coordination between government, industry leaders, and logistics providers.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Ukraine’s rolled steel production in 2025 reflects a broader trend: marginal domestic output resilience amid weakening global steel dynamics. The recent uptick in August offers a temporary boost, but global headwinds—particularly from tightening trade flows and price compression—may erode that momentum. As Ukraine navigates a more constrained export landscape, strategic realignment toward higher-margin products and EU-aligned trade policies will be key. SuperMetalPrice continues to monitor steel pricing trends and anticipates elevated volatility heading into Q4 2025.