US Auto Production 2026 Trends Amid EV Reset
US automakers’ strategic pivot to EVs and hybrids will influence 2026 vehicle production volumes.
Analysts predict a slight decline of about 1%, reflecting slower EV adoption and stronger hybrid uptake.
Meanwhile, consumer preference shifts toward ICE vehicles due to reduced EV mandates and fuel standards.
High vehicle prices remain a barrier to expanding production, with the average US transaction at $49,814.
Ford and other automakers plan to balance EV, hybrid, and ICE production to optimize profitability.
As a result, the US auto market may stay near a post-pandemic plateau in 2026, delaying full EV growth.
Tariffs, incentives, and financing rules will further shape production outcomes.
Interest deductibility of up to $10,000 for US-assembled vehicles could support demand.
However, rising dealer inventory from slowed EV sales may limit immediate production needs.
Impact on Steel and Material Demand
The EV reset will drive demand for US-produced steel, particularly cold-rolled, galvanized, and specialty steel products.
Steel accounts for up to 54% of materials used in ICE, hybrid, and EV vehicles.
As EV production slows, manufacturers may shift some materials use from aluminum back to steel.
Auto sector demand represents 20–25% of US steel consumption overall.
Increased truck production by Detroit automakers will sustain demand for high-strength steel and alloy rods.
Consequently, steel suppliers must anticipate gradual shifts between EV and ICE production volumes.
Hybrid vehicles are gaining market share quickly, with Ford hybrids up 30% in November 2025.
Newer, more affordable EV models, such as Rivian’s R2, may gradually expand BEV adoption.
By 2030, BEVs are forecasted to reach 22.7% of North American production, up from 7.9% in 2025.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
US automakers’ EV and hybrid reset signals strategic rebalancing in vehicle production.
Steel demand will fluctuate based on EV versus ICE mix, impacting cold-rolled and specialty steels.
Analysts expect production to recover post-2027 as new EV pricing and hybrid adoption stabilize.
Investors and suppliers should monitor automakers’ execution pace, incentives, and material choices closely.
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