US Military Shift: Europe Prepares to Step Up Defence Capabilities

EU Faces Need for Self-Sufficiency in Military Tech as US Resources Shift
As the US approaches its next presidential election, experts predict a shift in US military priorities that could impact Europe’s security landscape. With tensions rising in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly around China, the next administration may reallocate military resources away from Europe. This raises significant questions about how the EU will bridge potential gaps in its military capabilities, especially in key areas like advanced fighter jets and early warning systems.

US Military Contributions to Europe
The US has been a crucial supplier of military technology to Europe, providing a significant portion of the continent’s “strategic enablers.” These include critical assets such as large transport planes, naval ships, and advanced fighter jets. According to Jan Joel Andersson, Senior Analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the US is the dominant supplier of stealth strike fighters, with European nations collectively procuring over 500 Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

However, as US focus shifts, Europe may face challenges in replacing or supplementing these systems. Andersson warned that in the absence of American leadership, the EU would need to rapidly increase defense cooperation and its own military production capabilities to maintain its defense posture. One area where Europe will likely need to step in is the procurement of Airborne Early Warning & Control (AWAC) aircraft, which are vital for detecting and tracking enemy aircraft, ships, and missiles over vast distances.

EU Defense Investments: A Long-Term Strategy
The EU has been preparing for a gradual reduction in US military support over the past decade. This preparation includes significant budget investments, such as the €8 billion earmarked for the European Defence Fund (2021-2027), aimed at enhancing the EU’s military capabilities. Additionally, EU member states have entered joint agreements to produce critical military equipment within Europe.

One example is the collaboration between Italian defense firm Leonardo and German company Rheinmetall to produce military combat vehicles. Furthermore, the EU is working on developing the next generation of fighter jets and drones, with the Franco-German-Spanish collaboration set to deliver its first demonstration flight in 2027, although operational deployment is not expected until 2040.

Urgent Need for More Defence Spending
Despite these efforts, a recent report by Mario Draghi highlighted that EU defense spending remains insufficient given current geopolitical challenges. Draghi’s “Future of European Competitiveness” report found that the EU needs an additional €500 billion in defense spending over the next decade to meet growing demand.

The EU’s gradual rearmament, although significant, is seen as falling short of what is necessary to counter threats and fill the void if US military support decreases.

The Challenge of Weapon Supply Chains
Another major concern, according to former NATO official Jamie Shea, is the potential disruption in the supply of basic materials that make up military equipment, including chemicals, explosives, and microprocessors. With more frequent conflicts and escalating demands for weapons, these essential supplies may face shortages. Shea noted that while the US may not actively reduce trade with European defense companies like Lockheed Martin or Boeing, there could be challenges in meeting the demand for these basic materials in a protracted or multi-front conflict scenario.

Looking Ahead: Europe’s Defence Landscape
In the face of a possible US military shift, the EU is focusing on long-term strategic defense initiatives. However, experts warn that Europe must accelerate its investments and production capabilities to compensate for any shortfall in US-made weapons. A concerted effort in defense innovation, collaboration between EU states, and adequate funding will be crucial for ensuring European security in an era of shifting geopolitical priorities.