US Scrap Market Outlook: Stability and Modest Gains
As the US ferrous scrap market enters November 2025, prices are expected to rise modestly by 0.7% month-on-month. After a 3.6% decline in October, the Outlook Trend Indicator has risen to 52.3, signaling a slight bullish sentiment. However, momentum remains limited, and market participants anticipate minimal movement as the year ends. Sellers show some optimism, while cautious buyers and brokers maintain more neutral stances, reflecting mixed expectations.
Diverging Sentiments Between Sellers and Buyers
Market participants have reached broad consensus on the November forecast, with 68% agreeing on a flat outlook. However, sentiment diverges between sellers and buyers. Sellers are the most optimistic, with a reading of 58.3, while buyers sit below neutral at 48.7. Brokers show a neutral stance at 50. Despite sellers’ optimism, weak demand and stable supply conditions keep the overall outlook cautious, leading to a flat pricing expectation.
Flat Pricing and Balanced Conditions Expected
Inventories remain near average levels (49.6), with no immediate supply constraints. Stable export flows and weak demand contribute to the market’s balanced state. The prevailing sentiment among market participants is “All Unchanged,” with no significant price shifts expected in the near term. Seasonal factors, such as potential winter weather disruptions and mills’ filled order books, may influence the market more significantly as December approaches.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
The US ferrous scrap market is expected to remain stable in November 2025, with minimal price movement. Sellers are cautiously optimistic, but weak demand and balanced inventories suggest flat pricing conditions. Seasonal factors could shape the market’s direction toward the end of the year. Participants should stay alert for any unexpected shifts that could impact supply and demand as we move into the new year.
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