Australia Cuts Lithium Export Earnings Forecast as Prices Decline

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A miner holds a lump of iron ore in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, December 2, 2013.

Weaker Demand and Market Surplus Drive Revised Projections for 2024-26

Weaker spodumene prices and reduced demand, especially in the EV sector, lead to revised projections for 2024-26. The Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) now expects lithium export earnings of A$6.35 billion for 2024-25 and A$8.2 billion for 2025-26, down from earlier estimates of A$6.58 billion and A$9.07 billion.

Spodumene prices have dropped, influencing the market surplus and causing a slowdown in lithium demand. Production is expected to rise, from 471,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2024-25 to 558,000 tons in 2025-26. However, the current downturn has prompted several producers to cut or suspend operations, raising concerns about potential closures if prices do not recover soon.

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