China’s Antimony Export Ban: Minimal Immediate Impact on US Market

China’s Export Ban on Antimony and Its Immediate Market Effects
China‘s recent announcement to suspend antimony exports to the United States is not expected to cause significant price fluctuations in the US market, despite the growing concerns over supply disruptions. Market participants had largely anticipated this decision, and the initial market reaction suggests that the impact on prices will be minimal. While the ban is part of a broader export restriction on “dual-use” items (germanium, gallium, and graphite), the US market for antimony was already adjusting before the announcement, with traders testing lower prices in anticipation of such a move.

Price Testing and Adjustment in the US Antimony Market
Prior to the announcement, US traders were already adjusting their price offers for antimony, with offers ranging from $38,500 to $39,000 per ton on a CIF basis. These price points reflect a period of resistance to higher prices, which had been driven by panic buying earlier in the year. Although it is unlikely that prices will fall drastically from current levels due to continued supply-side constraints, the market may see a reduced volume of offers as traders adapt to the new supply realities.

Global Search for New Antimony Suppliers
With China historically being the dominant supplier of antimony to the US, the export ban has sparked a global search for new sources of supply. Countries such as India, Bolivia, Myanmar, and Vietnam are emerging as potential alternatives to Chinese imports. Turkey, with its significant production capacity for antimony, could see increased demand for its resources as a result of the disruption in Chinese supply chains. Additionally, new developments in Australia, including the Hillgrove project in New South Wales, could contribute to global antimony supply by 2026.

Future Prospects for Domestic Antimony Supply in the US
In the US, the Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho, led by Perpetua Resources, promises to significantly increase domestic antimony production. This project, which is expected to be operational in the coming years, could help ease supply concerns and reduce reliance on foreign sources of this critical metal. The Stibnite project is poised to play a key role in meeting the increasing demand for antimony as global markets adjust to new supply dynamics.