Global Steel Scrap Collection Forecast to Reach 873 Million Tons by 2050

Global Steel Scrap Collection Forecast Highlights Regional Shifts

The Japan Iron and Steel Federation projects global steel scrap collection will reach 873 million tons by 2050. This figure marks a downward revision of 31 million tons from earlier estimates. However, global steel scrap collection forecast trends still show long-term growth momentum.

The updated outlook reflects weaker prospects in China and developed economies. Meanwhile, emerging markets continue to drive expansion in scrap generation. As a result, the global steel scrap collection forecast increasingly depends on developing regions.

Compared to 2020, total scrap volumes will rise by 36 percent. This increase equals an additional 232 million tons over three decades. Therefore, despite revisions, the long-term trajectory remains firmly upward.

Global Steel Scrap Collection Forecast and Market Demand Outlook

The global steel scrap collection forecast reveals strong divergence between regions. Developing countries, excluding China, will reach 370 million tons by 2050. This figure exceeds previous estimates by 16 million tons.

In contrast, China’s projection has dropped to 311 million tons. Developed economies will also see lower output at 193 million tons. These changes reflect slower growth in mature markets and shifting industrial dynamics.

Shift Toward Emerging Markets and EAF Demand

The geographic center of scrap supply will move toward developing countries by 2050. More than 85 percent of scrap will serve the steel industry. Electric arc furnace operations will consume most of this material.

Steel consumption forecasts also influenced the revised outlook. Developing markets will see demand rise to 923 million tons. Meanwhile, China and developed regions will experience slower growth trends.

Recent data shows short-term pressure on scrap usage. Global scrap consumption declined by 1 percent in 2024. Steel output also fell slightly to 1.55 billion tons, signaling weaker demand in some regions.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The global steel scrap collection forecast signals a structural shift in supply dynamics. Emerging markets will dominate scrap generation and consumption in the coming decades. This trend supports long-term growth in electric arc furnace capacity. However, weaker demand in China could pressure global scrap pricing in the near term. Market participants should track regional imbalances closely.