Recycled Copper Output to Outpace Primary Supply Growth, ICSG Forecast Shows

Global copper markets are set to see faster growth in recycled copper production than primary supply, according to the latest forecast from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The shift highlights the rising importance of scrap-based supply as demand growth slows. Also, market balances are moving toward surplus.

The outlook signals a structural change in copper supply dynamics. Secondary refined copper is expected to play a larger role in meeting global demand across manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure sectors.

Secondary Copper Supply Gains Momentum

ICSG projects that secondary refined copper production—derived from scrap—will grow by 5.7% in 2027. This will significantly outpace the 2.3% increase expected in primary refined copper output. In effect, this trend reflects expanding recycling capacity and stronger collection flows in key regions.

The growth in recycled copper supply builds on earlier forecasts, where secondary output was already expected to rise at a faster pace due to new and expanded processing facilities. Furthermore, increasing focus on circular economy practices and cost efficiency is also supporting higher scrap utilization rates.

As a result, recycled copper is becoming a more critical component of global supply. This is especially true as mining projects face longer development timelines and higher capital costs.

Demand Growth Slows Amid Global Uncertainty

On the demand side, ICSG has revised its copper consumption outlook downward due to geopolitical risks and trade disruptions, particularly because of ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Global refined copper demand will grow by 1.6% in 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 2.1%. For 2027, analysts project demand growth at 2%, suggesting a moderate recovery that still falls below earlier expectations.

Slower demand growth reflects cautious industrial activity, softer trade flows, and uncertainty in key end-use sectors. These sectors include construction, power infrastructure, and manufacturing.

Market Shifts Toward Copper Surplus

The combination of rising secondary supply and weaker demand is expected to push the copper market into surplus over the next two years. ICSG forecasts a surplus of approximately 96,000 metric tons in 2026. This would reverse earlier expectations of a deficit.

By 2027, the surplus could expand significantly to around 377,000 metric tons. This is driven primarily by increased scrap-based production and moderated consumption growth.

This shift in supply-demand balance is likely to influence copper price trends. Higher availability could potentially ease upward price pressure in the near to medium term.

Market Impact

○ Impacted Metals: Refined copper cathode, secondary refined copper (scrap-based), copper scrap (No.1, No.2, blister copper)

○ Direction: Bearish

○ Time Horizon: 2026–2027

○ Affected Industries: Construction, power infrastructure, renewable energy, electrical equipment, manufacturing, recycling

○ Related Price Reports: Copper Weekly Price Report

○ Watch Item: Track whether secondary copper output continues to exceed forecasts as new recycling capacity ramps up globally.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The accelerating role of recycled copper marks a clear shift in how global supply growth is being achieved, with scrap increasingly offsetting slower primary mine expansion. This trend could reshape cost structures and pricing benchmarks across the copper market.

At the same time, the emergence of a sustained surplus suggests that copper prices may face near-term pressure unless demand growth strengthens beyond current expectations.