Copper price near all-time high as Chinese smelter activity surges

Copper price near all-time high driven by Chinese smelter expansion

Copper price near all-time high reflects strong recovery in global smelting activity. Prices rose over 5% the past week. Futures in New York reached $6.11 per pound, nearing record levels. This rally signals renewed strength in demand and processing activity.

Data from Earth-i confirms a sharp rebound in smelting operations. The SAVANT index shows inactive capacity fell to 11.7% in March. This marks a clear improvement from January’s record low performance. As a result, global copper processing shows strong recovery momentum.

China leads this surge in activity and capacity growth. China reduced inactive capacity to just 3.9%. Meanwhile, total active capacity reached a record 10.73 million tonnes. This expansion reflects strong downstream demand and improved market confidence.

Copper price near all-time high supported by supply constraints

Copper price near all-time high also reflects tightening supply conditions across global markets. Outside China, smelting activity remains uneven and constrained. Regions like North America and Oceania report higher inactivity rates. Operational disruptions continue to limit refined output.

In Iran, key smelters remain offline beyond maintenance schedules. Similarly, the Mount Isa smelter outage impacts regional supply. These disruptions create imbalances between supply and demand. Consequently, copper markets face increased volatility.

Meanwhile, Africa’s copper belt shows strong performance and stability. However, global supply chains still depend heavily on Asian processing capacity. Therefore, China’s dominance continues to shape market direction.

Smelter economics tighten as TC/RCs turn negative

Smelter margins face pressure despite strong activity growth. Rising sulfuric acid prices support short-term profitability for Chinese operators. According to S&P Global, acid prices jumped 74% since January. This increase offsets some cost pressures in refining operations.

However, treatment and refining charges have collapsed sharply. Spot TC/RCs dropped into deeply negative territory in recent trades. This shift reflects intense competition for copper concentrate supply. As a result, miners gain leverage while smelters face tighter margins.

Supply constraints will likely persist in the near term. Indonesia’s Batu Hijau mine export permit expiry could reduce concentrate flows. In addition, the Kamoa-Kakula smelter now consumes domestic output. These developments further tighten global concentrate availability.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Copper price near all-time high signals a structurally tight market environment. Strong Chinese smelting demand continues to absorb global supply. Meanwhile, declining TC/RCs highlight growing competition for raw materials. SuperMetalPrice expects continued price strength as supply risks intensify and demand remains resilient.