As China accelerates its efforts to transition to a greener energy system, there is growing optimism among experts about the nation’s ability to peak its CO2 emissions by 2025. Recent research from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) reveals that a significant portion of experts now believe China is on track to meet this critical milestone.
Optimistic Forecast for China’s Coal Consumption and Emissions Peak
A survey of industry and academic experts shows that 44% believe China’s CO2 emissions will peak by 2025, marking a significant shift in sentiment compared to previous years. Additionally, 52% of experts expect coal consumption to peak within the same timeframe, signaling a potential turning point for a country that relies heavily on coal for its energy needs, contributing to about 80% of its fossil fuel-based emissions.
This shift toward renewable energy sources and emission reductions is increasingly seen as a result of China’s growing investments in solar and wind power, alongside a rapid increase in the adoption of electric vehicles. In 2024, over 50% of new vehicle sales were electric, a clear indicator of China’s push to reduce carbon-intensive activities in its transportation sector.
Xunpeng Shi from ISETS highlighted the significance of these efforts, stating, “The ongoing industrial transformation and expanded clean energy deployment are driving confidence that China can meet its emissions targets sooner than initially expected.”
Progress and Challenges in China’s Energy Transition
Over the past few years, the outlook for China’s energy transition has become notably more optimistic. The proportion of experts expecting China’s CO2 emissions to peak by 2025 has surged from 15% in 2022 to 44% in 2024. This shift comes as China continues to increase its clean energy capacity and limits new investments in fossil fuel projects.
However, challenges remain. According to CREA, China’s total energy consumption continues to outpace its GDP growth, with electricity and energy consumption rising faster than pathways aligned with Paris Agreement targets. While the country has made strides in certain sectors like electric vehicles and construction emissions, it still lags behind in reducing overall CO2 emissions and addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions.
Lauri Myllyvirta from CREA warned, “If China does not significantly accelerate renewable energy deployment or steer its economic development away from energy-intensive industries, it could struggle to meet global climate goals.”
Key Focus: China’s Upcoming National Climate Plan
The next crucial step for China will be the release of its updated national climate plan in February 2025, which is expected to set clearer goals for emissions reduction and renewable energy expansion. This plan will be essential in ensuring that China aligns with the Paris Agreement targets and remains on track to peak emissions by 2025 while continuing to transition toward carbon neutrality.
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