Codelco Reports 48,000‑Tonne Loss at El Teniente, Deepening Copper Supply Crunch

El Teniente Disruption Expands to 48,000 Tonnes Output Loss

Codelco now expects the El Teniente mine to lose 48,000 tonnes of copper output due to the July rock burst. Previously, analysts projected a 33,000‑tonne hit; the revised figure adds another 25,000 tonnes in 2026. CEO Máximo Pacheco said the disruption could also cut EBITDA by approximately $500 million. He emphasized that Codelco will resume operations “in a very safe way” and is prioritizing safety above all.

Despite the setback, Codelco claims to have met its supply commitments to date. It reported that production through September 30 rose 2% year-on-year, even amid operational challenges. The company insists that without the accident, growth would have been stronger. It has launched both internal and external investigations involving geomechanics and geoscience experts, aiming to complete the reviews within two to three months.

Global Copper Market Slides into Structural Deficit

The El Teniente loss compounds supply disruptions across the sector—from Indonesia to DRC to Panama. Consequently, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) revised its 2026 outlook from a 209,000‑tonne surplus to a 150,000‑tonne deficit. Many analysts now view the copper market as structurally tighter. The deeper the mining operations go, the greater the geotechnical risk—including rock bursts that challenge underground stability and safety.

Codelco’s incident underscores the fragility of large underground systems. Pacheco described rock bursts as abrupt ruptures releasing seismic energy. Investigations suggest a “vertical unloading” process due to changes in cavity geometry may have triggered the burst. Such structural shifts deepen risk in mature, deep deposits. Going forward, Codelco plans to upgrade its modeling, mitigation practices, and engineering oversight across complex underground zones.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Codelco’s revised 48,000‑tonne loss serves as a stark warning for the global copper supply outlook. As key mines face operational hazards, the industry must recalibrate expectations for 2026. Producers and investors should now price in elevated risk premiums and tighter margins. Meanwhile, technological solutions in geomechanics and predictive modeling will become critical enablers for deep-mine viability. For commodity strategists, this incident strengthens the case for disciplined capital allocation and hedging in the copper sector.