Hot-rolled coil market trends and regulatory impacts in Europe
The global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market faced moderate pressure in 2025, with Europe showing notable declines.
Western Europe saw average HRC prices fall 4.6% year-on-year to €603.2/t Ex works.
Italy recorded a 7% decline to €578.4/t Ex works, while Southern Europe imports dropped 12.1%.
Regulatory factors such as CBAM and trade defense measures influenced market dynamics.
Import competitiveness weakened due to potential additional costs and carbon payment complexities.
Domestic producers defended prices amid limited supply, longer delivery times, and CO2 quota shortages.
HRC prices in Europe are expected to remain volatile in 2026.
The full CBAM launch and trade defense policies may support prices despite weak industrial demand.
U.S. and China show contrasting HRC price developments
The U.S. HRC market rose 11.1% on average, reaching $949.4/t Ex works.
Domestic producers, led by Nucor, increased spot prices weekly, supported by capacity management.
Infrastructure projects, data centers, and semiconductor demand underpinned expectations for further growth.
Conversely, China’s average HRC price fell 9.8% to $477/t FOB in 2025.
Spot market demand remained weak, despite stronger futures and supply control rumors.
New export rules in 2026 may stabilize exports, but domestic demand limits rapid price gains.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
Global hot-rolled coil markets show divergent trends driven by regional policies and producer strategies.
Europe faces regulatory-driven volatility, while U.S. markets benefit from proactive pricing and infrastructure demand.
China remains constrained by weak domestic consumption and export competition.
SuperMetalPrice expects 2026 to bring selective opportunities, with careful attention to regulatory and trade developments.
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