Global Hot-Rolled Coil Market Shows Divergent Trends in November

European Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Climb Amid Supply Constraints

The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market has seen price growth since early November. Western Europe and Italy reported increases of 1.7%, with prices reaching €610/t and €605/t Ex-works, respectively. Southern Europe import offers surged 5.3% to €500/t CIF. Price gains are driven by annual automotive contract negotiations, where steelmakers push for €60-100/t higher rates. Reduced availability of cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized products further supports domestic HRC prices. Supply remains sufficient, but limited availability and import uncertainty reinforce the position of European mills. Analysts expect moderate price growth of €10-20/t by year-end, depending on demand recovery.

US Hot-Rolled Coil Market Strengthens as Producers Raise Prices

In the United States HRC prices rose to $970/t, the highest since August, following weekly increases by producers such as Nucor and NLMK USA. Reduced spot market availability due to autumn capacity shutdowns supported price gains. However, demand from processors remains cautious, as service centers scale down ahead of seasonal slowdowns. Short delivery times indicate supply is still sufficient. Analysts expect HRC prices to fluctuate within $10-20/t through year-end, contingent on producer discipline and inventory replenishment strategies.

China Faces Seasonal Pressure and Export Competition

In contrast, China’s HRC prices dropped 3.1% to $470/t FOB, hitting the lowest level since early July. Seasonal slowdown in winter and rising inventories weigh on domestic prices. Export markets face intense competition from Japan, India, and Indonesia, with occasional deep discounts reflecting struggles to maintain volume. The market could see slight recovery only if production decreases significantly or state incentives emerge.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

Global HRC markets diverge sharply. Europe and the US benefit from supply constraints and strategic pricing, while China struggles with seasonal decline and export competition. Price stability in 2026 will depend on producer discipline, inventory management, and demand recovery across regions.