Global Trade Meets Over 60% of Critical Minerals Demand

Global Trade Drives Critical Minerals Supply

More than 60% of global critical minerals demand relies on international trade, highlighting structural dependence.
This dependence makes supply chains vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, export controls, and refining bottlenecks.
Moreover, copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths support electrification, digital infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing.

Global demand for key minerals will rise from 28 million tonnes in 2021 to nearly 41 million by 2040.
Copper will more than double, while lithium and nickel could grow tenfold due to battery production and energy storage.
Additionally, electric vehicles drive demand, using four times more copper than internal-combustion vehicles. EV copper use may reach 3.4 million tonnes by 2035.

Policy Responses and Geopolitical Risks in Critical Mineral Markets

Countries are boosting strategic planning and enforcing export controls to secure supply chains.
Currently, over 600 policies target critical minerals, including incentives for domestic refining, recycling, and upstream investment.
Furthermore, geographic concentration increases risk: Indonesia dominates nickel production, Congo controls cobalt, China leads rare earth refining, and Australia, Chile, and China supply most lithium.

International cooperation remains critical to prevent market distortions and maintain investment in mining and refining.
In addition, transparent markets and structured producer-consumer dialogue, like oil market mechanisms, can lower volatility.
Therefore, policymakers must balance security, sustainability, and trade openness to meet rising electrification demand.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The IEF report highlights the fragility of critical mineral supply chains as electrification accelerates.
Producers, consumers, and investors should watch policy changes and geopolitical events closely.
Strategic planning, clear markets, and cross-border coordination will determine reliable mineral supply.
Ultimately, copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths will remain essential to clean energy transitions.