Indonesia’s Nickel Policy Turn: State Control, Rising Costs and the Investment Chill

Indonesia Nickel Indonesia has spent a decade pulling the global nickel industry toward itself — banning ore exports, forcing downstream processing, and drawing tens of billions of dollars in Chinese-led smelter investment to become the dominant force in Class 1 and Class 2 nickel supply. In 2026, the model is shifting. Jakarta is moving from growth-at-all-costs expansion to state-managed supply discipline, and the frequency and unpredictability of that shift is now the single biggest risk to the country’s downstreaming ambitions. For nickel buyers, battery-material procurement teams, al...