Iron Ore and Steel Billet Price Declines Expected by 2025
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts lower steel billet and iron ore prices for 2025. Steel billet prices are expected to drop by 5.2% to $478.1 per tonne (FOB Ukraine). Iron ore prices will also decrease by 11.3%, reaching $97 per tonne (China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe). These estimates are part of the NBU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
Iron Ore Prices to Decline Further
The NBU expects iron ore prices to continue their downward trend. By 2026, the price will fall by 8.7% to $88.6 per tonne. In 2027, the price will decrease by another 1.1% to $87.6 per tonne. Increased production from global producers contributes to this decline. Major producers like Rio Tinto and Vale will increase output, leading to an oversupply. Growth in production from China, India, and African nations also pushes prices lower.
Steel Billet Prices to Experience Modest Increases
While steel billet prices are forecasted to increase, the rise will be moderate. In 2026, the price will go up by 2.9% to $492 per tonne. In 2027, the price will increase by 2.1% to $502.5 per tonne (FOB Ukraine). The European market’s demand, driven by infrastructure spending, will influence these increases. Steel production in China is expected to decrease, reducing supply and stabilizing global prices.
Global Production Growth Affects Iron Ore Prices
The NBU attributes the decline in iron ore prices to higher production levels from top global producers. Rio Tinto plans a 1.5% annual increase in production, while Vale aims for a similar rise. China, India, and African nations will also boost production. This expansion in supply exacerbates the oversupply situation, pushing prices downward.
Market Conditions to Keep Steel Prices in Check
For steel billets, the NBU notes that price increases will remain limited. The growing demand in Europe, driven by safety and infrastructure projects, will support price fluctuations. Additionally, the ongoing tariff dispute between the U.S. and third countries may add pressure to steel prices. This will affect global supply and demand dynamics.
As of April 2025, iron ore futures in China and Singapore have reached $99 per tonne. Market participants do not expect prices to rise above this level in the short term. This supports the NBU’s forecast of continued price declines in the coming years.
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