Century Aluminum 2026 Guidance

Century Aluminum maintained its 2026 primary aluminum shipment guidance of 630,000 metric tonnes, signaling confidence that recovery work at its Iceland smelter and the restart of idled capacity in South Carolina remain on track despite weaker first-quarter shipment volumes.

Lower Shipments Offset by Stronger Aluminum Prices

Century shipped 122,865 tonnes of aluminum in the first quarter, down 27% from a year earlier. The decline reflected reduced output from Nordural in Iceland after an electrical equipment failure in October 2025, as well as the gradual restart of idled US capacity.

Despite the shipment drop, revenue increased 2.4% to $649.2 million. The improvement was supported by higher realized aluminum prices, including stronger London Metal Exchange pricing and regional aluminum premiums. For buyers, this shows that physical aluminum availability and regional premium dynamics remain important even when total shipment volumes fall.

Nordural and Mt Holly Restarts Support 2026 Supply Plan

Century said its Nordural Grundartangi smelter in Iceland remains on schedule to return to nearly full production by the end of July. The plant produced 29,000 tonnes of aluminum in the first quarter, down 61% year on year, making it the biggest near-term swing factor in Century’s 2026 production outlook.

The company also began restarting more than 50,000 tonnes of idled capacity at its Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina on 16 April. Century expects the plant to return to full production by the end of June. Mt Holly produced 40,000 tonnes in the first quarter, down 4.8% from a year earlier.

The additional Mt Holly volumes have already been placed with US customers, highlighting continued demand for domestic aluminum supply as geopolitical disruption affects Middle East production and exports.

Oklahoma Smelter Project Remains a Strategic Growth Option

Century also expects to make a final investment decision and break ground by year-end on its proposed Oklahoma smelter project with Emirates Global Aluminium. If approved, the project would be strategically important for US primary aluminum supply, particularly as domestic buyers seek more secure sourcing outside volatile import channels.

First-quarter profit rose sharply to $337.5 million from $29.7 million a year earlier. The increase was largely driven by the $287.9 million sale of Century’s Hawesville, Kentucky site to data center infrastructure developer TeraWulf, along with a $33 million insurance gain related to the Iceland equipment failure.

Market Impact

○ Impacted Metals: Primary aluminum, P1020 aluminum, US primary aluminum ingot, Icelandic primary aluminum

○ Direction: Mixed

○ Time Horizon: Near-term to Q3 2026

○ Affected Industries: Automotive, construction, packaging, electrical equipment, aluminum trading, data center infrastructure, manufacturing

○ Related Price Reports: Aluminum Weekly Price Report

○ Watch Item: Monitor whether Nordural reaches near-full production by the end of July and Mt Holly reaches full production by the end of June.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary
Century Aluminum’s guidance is important because it points to a gradual recovery in Western primary aluminum supply at a time when regional premiums, energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions continue to influence buyer behavior. The company’s restart progress at Nordural and Mt Holly could ease some near-term supply concerns, but the market impact will depend on whether these volumes return on schedule.
The Oklahoma smelter project is the bigger strategic signal. If Century and Emirates Global Aluminium proceed, it would strengthen the long-term case for more domestic US aluminum capacity, especially for industrial buyers seeking lower supply-chain risk.