China Steel Production Decline Intensifies in 2025
Chinese steel producers reduced output to 72 million tons in October 2025, a 12% drop from October 2024. This represents the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Compared to September 2025, production fell 2%, highlighting persistent weakness in domestic demand. Experts attribute the reduction to declining orders in the real estate and industrial sectors. Meanwhile, excess capacity and narrow profit margins are keeping steel prices under pressure.
Government guidance emphasizing production discipline is also influencing mills to cut output. October’s steel production marks the lowest level for that month since 2021, when COVID-19 lockdowns disrupted the economy. Consequently, total steel output for January–October 2025 fell 4% year-on-year to 818 million tons. Structural demand weaknesses and chronic oversupply are emerging as key challenges for the industry.
Impact on Steel Markets and Commodities
Weak production in China is affecting global steel and raw material markets. Rebar futures on the Shanghai Exchange fell 0.2%, while hot-rolled coil prices also decreased. Singapore iron ore futures dropped 0.6% to $102.2 per ton. Traders are cautious due to slow recovery expectations for Chinese steel demand. In 2024, Chinese production totaled 1.005 billion tons, the lowest in five years, signaling that output may not exceed one billion tons in the near term.
SuperMetalPrice Commentary:
China’s production cuts highlight persistent structural challenges in its steel sector. Weak domestic consumption, a slowing real estate market, and policy-driven production discipline are reshaping the market. Global steel prices may remain under pressure until China’s demand stabilizes. Investors should monitor real estate recovery and industrial activity for early signals of a market rebound.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.