Global Copper Smelting Activity Surges, Driven by China and Europe

Copper Smelting Activity Remains Resilient in 2025

Global copper smelting activity continues to show strength, supported by rising output in China and Europe. According to Earth-i’s Savant Global Copper Monitoring Index, only 11.8% of global smelting capacity stood inactive in August 2025. This marks a 1.8% improvement from July, suggesting ongoing momentum in industrial copper demand.

In China, smelting activity rose by 1.6% in August compared to the previous month. Year-over-year, China’s smelting strength increased by 4.6%, indicating strong domestic consumption and manufacturing output. Meanwhile, South America faced headwinds, as a Codelco smelter shutdown in Chile drove regional inactivity to 40.2%.

Europe recorded the most stable smelting environment. The continent’s inactive smelting capacity fell for the third straight month, reaching just 6.5% in August. This consistent performance underlines Europe’s ongoing investment in non-ferrous processing infrastructure.

Secondary Refining, Recycled Copper, and Global Surplus Trends

Copper secondary refinery output is also on the rise, thanks to stronger scrap supply and processing. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports a 5.4% year-over-year increase in global scrap-based copper production from January to July 2025. This growth came primarily from China’s expanding recycling and secondary smelting capabilities.

In the U.S., Aurubis launched recycled copper operations at its Richmond, Georgia plant in August. This facility marks a key milestone in domestic sustainable metals production and contributes to North America’s push for supply chain resilience.

Despite high production levels, the refined copper surplus has narrowed sharply. ICSG estimates a global surplus of 101,000 metric tons for the first seven months of 2025. When adjusting for Chinese bonded stock changes, the surplus expands to 163,000 metric tons. However, both figures remain well below the 401,000-ton surplus recorded during the same period in 2024.

SuperMetalPrice Commentary:

The global copper market in 2025 reflects strong industrial momentum despite regional disparities. China and Europe continue to dominate primary smelting activity, while the U.S. strengthens its secondary refining footprint. The narrowing copper surplus signals a more balanced market, with demand recovering alongside global manufacturing. SuperMetalPrice expects this trend to support stable or rising copper prices through Q4, especially as clean energy and EV sectors continue to drive copper consumption.