Global Refined Zinc Market to Shift into Surplus by 2025, Says ILZSG

Refined Zinc Supply Growth Outpaces Demand

The global refined zinc market is heading toward a surplus in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The group forecasts a refined zinc surplus of 93,000 tons next year, driven by rising mine production and refined output.

Global demand for refined zinc is projected to grow by only 1% year-on-year, reaching 13.64 million tons in 2025. China, the largest consumer, is expected to see a 0.9% demand increase, following a 1.9% decline last year.

Meanwhile, refined zinc usage will rise in Brazil, India, and Turkey but decline in South Korea. Despite slight demand improvements, global economic uncertainty linked to U.S. trade policies may limit broader growth.

Rising Mine Production Supports Surplus Outlook

After three years of decline, global zinc mine production is forecast to climb by 4.3%, reaching 12.43 million tons in 2025. Major contributors include Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru.

European zinc production is set to recover strongly, growing by 18.3%, thanks to key developments in Bosnia, Russia, and Ireland. However, reduced mine output in the United States may slightly offset these gains. Global refined zinc metal production will rise by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons, supported by concentrate availability.

China and Norway will lead the expansion, particularly after Boliden’s Odda smelter completed a 150,000 t/year capacity boost. Nevertheless, closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka site in Japan will partially restrict refined output.

Refined Lead Market Also Moves into Surplus

The ILZSG also predicts a refined lead market surplus of 82,000 tons in 2025. Refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, while supply will expand by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons. Growth will mainly come from China, India, Mexico, and the United States, reflecting a wider trend of metals supply resilience. Stay informed on market shifts with SuperMetalPrice, your trusted source for global metal and alloy news.