In mid-April 2025, Chinese iron ore prices for Fe 62 reached $99 per ton (CFR Qingdao). This marked a $3 increase since April 7. At the same time, futures contracts on the Singapore Exchange for May delivery were also trading at $99 per ton. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, September futures were offered at $98 per ton. Market participants do not foresee further price increases in the near term.
Factors Influencing Iron Ore Prices
Despite rising iron ore prices, steel billet prices in China have fallen. Steel billet prices dropped by $18 per ton to $403 per ton (EXW Tangshan) between March 26 and April 18. Meanwhile, iron ore imports have increased. Australian shipments from Port Hedland rose by 1.15% year-on-year and 36.73% month-on-month, totaling 50.66 million tons in March.
The decline in steel billet prices, combined with increased iron ore imports, highlights challenges for China’s steel industry. Finished steel prices remain low. The Chinese government is stepping in to support steel mills. The increased state support aims to counter declining margins and sustain steel production growth.
Government Support and Market Adjustments
The Chinese government has introduced measures to stimulate steel production. One such measure is the reduction in stockpiles of flat and long products, including hot-rolled coils and rebar. By April, stocks had decreased, generating additional market demand. However, this has not significantly influenced price dynamics.
Premier Li Keqiang emphasized the need for “timely and targeted policy measures to help guide market expectations.” This statement reflects China’s proactive approach to managing its steel and iron ore industries.
Impact of Global Iron Ore Markets
The global iron ore market has experienced mixed trends. Brazilian iron ore export prices for high-grade Fe 65 remained stable at $110 per ton (CFR China) between April 11 and 18. However, the supply from local producers decreased by $5 per ton during the same period.
Ukraine, another key player in the iron ore market, saw a 5.7% decline in iron ore exports in Q1 2025. Exports totaled 8.49 million tons, contributing to a 20.3% drop in revenue, which reached $687.79 million. China is the primary consumer of Ukrainian iron ore. However, Ukraine’s mining sector faces challenges due to delays in VAT refunds for exporters like Ferrexpo.
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